War of the Rebellion: Serial 125 Page 0314 CORRESPONDENCE, ETC.

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returns of 1856 to be an overestimate; and they give, as more trustworthy, a table, made up from the estimates of Senor Francisco Nunes de Souza, a native statistician, quoted also by Ewbank. The table was published in the Agricultor Braziliero. It is for 1856, and sums up 7,040,000. a

The same authors give us also estimates of the percentage of slaves to the free population in one-half of the provinces composing the empire. It is to be regretted that the proportion in the other half, the most populous, containing more than three- fifths of the population, cannot be obtained. These estimates, we are told, are "from the very careful computation of the Honorable J. W. Petit, formerly U. S. consul at Maranham." They show an aggregate of 944,623 slaves in a population of 2,680,000. b The number of free colored is not given. To bring these estimates up to 1860 we must add the increase of population during four years. The rate of increase, deduced from the average of estimates going back thirty years, is about 1 3/4 per cent. a year, or 7 per cent. in four years. This gives us 492,800; which, added to 7,040,000, raises the total population of Brazil in 1860 to 7,532,800; an estimate which, in default of an official census, we adopt. It is somewhat above the average of the current estimates of the day. c

If the proportion of slaves to frees persons be the same in the remaining

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a In the Province of-

Amazonas.............................................. 30,000

Para.................................................. 190,000

Maranhao.............................................. 280,000

Paiuhy................................................ 170,000

Ceara................................................. 350,000

Rio Grande do Norte................................... 160,000

Parahiba.............................................. 230,000

Pernambuco............................................ 800,000

Alagoas............................................... 210,000

Sergipe............................................... 180,000

Bahia................................................. 880,000

In the Province of-

Espirito Santo........................................ 60,000

Rio de Janeiro........................................ 1,400,000

Sao Paulo............................................. 680,000

Parana................................................ 70,000

Santa Catharina....................................... 90,000

Rio Grande do Sul..................................... 240,000

Minas-Geraes.......................................... 800,000

Matto Grosso.......................................... 100,000

Goyaz................................................. 120,000

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Total population of Brazil............................. 7,040,000

(From Brazil and the Brazilians, already cited, p.599.)

b The details are as follows:

Total Slave Number of

population. population slaves.

to free in

the

proportion

of-

Para 190,000 1 to 1.431 78,157

Piauhy 170,000 1 to 2.666 46,372

Rio Grande do Norte 160,000 1 to 7.221 19,462

Alagoas 210,000 1 to 4.221 40,222

Sergipe 180,000 1 to 2.927 45,836

Espirito Santo 60,000 1 to 2.009 19,940

Rio de Janeiro 1,400,000 1 to 1.181 641,907

Santa Catharina 90,000 1 to .5 15,000

Goyaz 120,000 1 to .7 15,000

Matto Grosso 100,000 1 to 3.4 22,727

Total 2,680,000

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944,623

(From Brazil and the Brazilians, p.599.)

c Of popular estimates found in modern gazetteers and descriptive atlases, a few are a little above this, while others are considerably below it. The average of these would make the population in 1860 about 7,250,000 only.

The Imperial Gazetteer puts the total in 1854 at 6,065,000; Harper's Gazetteer in 1865 at 6,150,000. Passing by McCulloch's Gazetteer, where it is "vaguely estimated at 5,000,000," we have the estimate in Mitchell's Descriptive Atlas of 7,700,000 as the population in 1860. Colton puts it for the same year at 7,780,000. Adding to the two first estimates at the rate of 1 3/4 per cent. a year to bring them up to 1860, we have 6,701,300, 6,688,130, 7,700,000 and 7,787,000 as various estimates

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