A 'WIN-WIN' FOR NIXON

Within the context of Nixon's policy towards Hanoi and those actions taken by the Administration in carrying out that policy, the raid was just another step in the implementation of his strategy to end the war honorably for America. It is true that the impetus for the raid came from several years of activity by certain groups on behalf of the POWs, but Nixon realized he could use this issue to gain public support and exploit it in any way he saw fit. This not only benefits the POWs but, his Administration and his policy as well. In other words, the raid was a 'win-win' proposition for Nixon. First, he had taken action on behalf of the POWs, thereby showing his resolve to the world on this issue. Second, Nixon, along with the rest of his staff and planners, was convinced (they all fell in love with the plan) that the mission would be a military success. In keeping true to his strategy, Nixon's policy of negotiation would be followed by an operational application of that policy. If Nixon could not get Hanoi's attention through negotiations, then he would get it through military action as he had demonstrated once before in Cambodia. The first half of this 'win-win' proposition was political in nature. The second half focused on the military execution of the raid and the risking of American lives. Obviously, the second 'win' involved much more risk than the first. The first 'win' does not require much of an explanation. The political aspects and ramifications seem clear in light of previous discussion. However, less clear is the second portion of the 'win-win' proposition. In an attempt to evaluate and understand the risks associated with the military 'win', two scenarios may serve to highlight this conclusion.

With the first scenario, there are POWs at Son Tay. With this assumption, military risks are inherently greater. As a part of the previously conducted raid study, a high probability existed that some POWs would be killed by their guards during the rescue attempt. Furthermore, it was likely that any reprisals against all remaining POWs in North Vietnam would be severe as a result of the mission. Thus, the decision to act required careful deliberation among the planners and the NCA. However, everyone from Nixon down to the individual raider believed the raid was worth the risk even if only one POW came out alive (this opinion was shared by most of the POWs and their families although many congressional leaders would publicly disagree). After all, the raiders were all volunteers, willing to risk their lives or even become POWs themselves. How could anyone belittle such a courageous and honorable attempt to rescue American servicemen under severe duress regardless of the risk or chances of failure? Ultimately, this scenario saw a 'win' even though American lives would most likely be lost during the raid. The risk was worth the effort and the President made his final decision based on this risk assessment.

With the second scenario, there are no POWs at Son Tay. This scenario also assumes that the White House and the Pentagon knew beforehand (exactly when they knew is irrelevant) that there were no POWs at the camp. Moreover, one must also realize that the true intent of the mission had changed. The raiders were not going to rescue POWs, instead they were delivering a political message. From the standpoint of risk assessment, the second scenario would seem to possess less risk when compared to the risk associated with the first scenario. In other words, if the raid was going to be 'successful' with POWs at the camp as proposed in the first scenario, then would not the overall risk be reduced if no POWs were at Son Tay? After all, wouldn't Hanoi get the same political message through the actions of either scenario? With this rationale, both scenarios do appear to give a political and military 'win' situation providing the raid force was not completely destroyed during the mission (see Appendix D for an opposing view). With either scenario, Nixon could have his cake and eat it too. However, in the second scenario, the only thing missing would be the icing.